The Five Pillars
US commercial real estate investment sales in the first half of 2026, up 14.7% on the same period in 2025
Avison Young, July 2026Capital is back, and the depth is real. An owner weighing a sale faces more buyers than at any point since 2022. The Opportunity Zone map is being redrawn at the same time. A tract nominated this fall carries a tax treatment from January 1, 2027 that the tract next to it will not. Site decisions made now will outlive this cycle.
Sources: Avison Young — US investment sales, first half 2026 (July 2026); CBRE — US capital markets, second quarter 2026; Internal Revenue Service — Revenue Procedure 2026-14 (April 6, 2026) and Notice 2026-40 (June 18, 2026).
Forecast US container imports for October 2026, counted in twenty-foot equivalent units, up 8.5% on a year earlier
NRF and Hackett Associates, Global Port Tracker, October 8, 2026The peak is over. November turns negative and the year ends up only 1.4%. The growth in this year’s numbers came from timing rather than demand, because retailers pulled shipments forward ahead of the July tariff change. Anyone pricing warehouse space or truck capacity off 2026 volumes is pricing a pull-forward. A tariff floor of 10% now applies to almost everything landing in a US port.
Sources: National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates — Global Port Tracker (October 8, 2026); Office of the United States Trade Representative — Section 301 forced labor action (June 2026); Dorsey & Whitney — client alert on the new Section 301 tariffs (June 2026).
US soybean export commitments for the 2026-27 marketing year, more than double the same point a year earlier
USDA export sales data, reported by S&P Global, September 16, 2026Chinese demand is back on paper. Commitments are more than double last year, and a commitment is a booking rather than a delivery. Supply came in heavy in the same week, so prices fell on the report. A food or beverage operator should plan for easier input costs into 2027. An owner holding grain assets should look for the margin in storage and handling rather than in price.
Sources: US Department of Agriculture — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (October 9, 2026); USDA export sales data reported by S&P Global Commodity Insights (September 16, 2026); DTN Progressive Farmer — USDA reports summary (October 9, 2026).
Fall in F-1 student visas issued in 2025 against 2024, the pipeline that fills the current academic year
US Department of State monthly visa statistics, reported by The PIE News, 2026Visas issued last year set enrollment this year. The shortfall is already fixed, whatever policy does next. NAFSA cautions that a drop in visas is not a one-for-one drop in enrollment, because some students never applied. The exposure sits with the businesses around a campus: student housing, food service, and anything billed per head. Those revenue lines follow the intake, and they follow it late.
Sources: US Department of State monthly visa statistics, reported by The PIE News (2026); ICEF Monitor — US study visa issuance (August 2026); NAFSA and JB International — fall 2026 enrollment projection (August 2026); US Department of Homeland Security — final rule on Duration of Status (Federal Register, Doc. 2026-14439).
Share of PJM’s $16.4 billion capacity cost for 2028-29 attributed to data center demand
PJM Independent Market Monitor, July 2026Power is the binding constraint on where things get built now, not land and not permits. The cost of connecting very large loads is landing on other ratepayers in the region, which is why the rules are being rewritten this year. An industrial or logistics operator inside PJM can no longer treat the electricity line of the budget as stable. Put the rate path into any US site decision.
Sources: PJM Interconnection — 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction results (July 2026) and Independent Market Monitor; Citizens Utility Board — auction analysis (July 15, 2026); Federal Energy Regulatory Commission — show cause orders to six grid operators (June 18, 2026).
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